Melanie Stansbury has overwhelmingly defeated Mark Moores in the New Mexico Special Election for the 1st District. This is a major victory for the Democrats in a special election that they were always heavily favored to win. With that being said, the significant margin with which they won this special election is something to note as we grow closer to the midterms in 2022.
Melanie Stansbury received just a little but more than 60% of the vote, while the Republican challenger, Mark Moores brought in just under 36% of the vote.
Political investors had the opportunity to place their wagers on the potential margins of victory for the Democrats coming into tonight. Betting markets like PredictIt suggested that there was approximately a 33% chance of Stansbury winning by more than twenty percentage points.
With 99% of the voting precincts reporting at this time, the margin of victory officially clocks in at 24.6%, in favor of Stansbury. This may be a concerning sign to Republicans if trends like this continue, especially leading into the midterm elections that are approaching in November of 2022.
At the very least, it shows that various geographical points in the state of New Mexico are shifting further and further left. This means that adjacent states like Colorado may also experience this effect if trends remain the same in the future.
One of the next major elections to focus on will be the California Recall Election of 2021, where prominent Governor Gavin Newsom will be challenged by a recall petition for his handling of the pandemic. If Democratic enthusiasm is as effective as it was tonight, he should feel extremely comfortable about retaining his position as the California Governor. The fact of the matter is that this New Mexico Special Election simply doesn’t provide enough information to determine the political trends for the rest of the country. Observers are going to have to wait and see what happens in the upcoming midterm elections before any obvious claims can be made about the political climate.