Larry Elder only recently joined the recall race in what he called a ‘last minute decision’. He almost didn’t make it on the ballot, until a judge ruled that he did not violate any election rules relating to submitting tax returns.
He now leads a field of 40+ candidates that are trying to become the next governor of California. Several recent polls show Larry Elder leading by a sizable margin, although the largest chunk of voters remain undecided.
Back in April, political betting markets only suggested that Newsom had a 10% chance of being recalled in 2021. With recent developments taking shape in the recall race, PredictIt’s recall market now has a greater than 25% chance of Governor Gavin Newsom of being recalled, with the most likely replacement being marked as Larry Elder.
A motivated republican electorate in California hopes to use their built-up energy to outnumber democrats that may not be as motivated to cast a ballot. Newsom’s biggest concern is that many independents and liberal democrats are also not satisfied with his job performance and may in-fact vote to recall him, or simply not cast a ballot.
If the recall election is truly a low-turnout election, as it is expected to be, then the race could tilt either way, despite the democrats having a significant voter registration advantage. Only time will tell if Newsom can hold off the uncomfortable recall effort that challenges his reputation since being elected to his first term.