Political observers will admit that Donald Trump is taking several actions that could indicate that he is planning to run for President again in 2024. The rematch would likely place Trump against Joe Biden again and the results in 2024 could be very different from 2020 based on what we have seen in the last few weeks.
Biden’s catastrophe with Afghanistan has compounded into a terrible situation that has resulted in his approval ratings diving to levels that we haven’t yet seen during Biden’s term in office. Trump’s approval rating was around 45% for much of his first term in the White House. Biden is now facing a similar approval rating and it may be much harder to dig himself out of it as more political issues pile up under his watch.
Meanwhile Trump has been endorsing local candidates that support his ‘American First’ agenda and building up tons of money in his campaign ‘war chest’. He is expected to spend a lot of money trying to reclaim the Senate and House of Representative during the 2022 midterm elections.
The Republican Party is virtually guaranteed to win the House of Representatives based on the way that congressional districts are determined. It’s also very normal for the minority party to pick up seats in the House during the midterm elections. Trump may want to test out his influence in the midterm elections by making endorsements and spending some of his money.
At this point in time, it’s still way too early on to officially be able to determine if Trump is running again. Political betting sites like PredictIt have Trump as the slight favorite for being the GOP Nominee in 2024 with 38% of it happening. The Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, is slightly behind him at around 25%.
A rematch in 2024 could be very interesting and a recent poll showed Trump winning against Biden by 1 percentage point in a theoretical rematch. The election in 2020 was extremely close and it’s possible that 2024 could be even closer. It’s also possible that it will result in two consecutive single-term Presidents, followed by a former President retaking office and finishing his second term non-adjacent to his first term.