The midterm elections will take place in just over a year and political experts are looking towards the Governor’s Race in Virginia to try and determine where national momentum is at for each political party.
The minority party usually does very well in the midterm elections and that isn’t really expected to change in 2022. Most political analysts are already assuming that at a minimum, the Republican Party will win a majority in the House of Representatives.
Republicans also received good news from Senator Chuck Grassley in Iowa. At 88 years old, he plans to run for reelection in Iowa and that pretty much crushes any chance of the Democrats winning a Senate seat in that state.
That leaves us with the important election that is scheduled to take place in Virginia in 2021. Governor Ralph Northam will leave office soon and be replaced by either Terry McAuliffe, a previous governor of Virginia, or he will be replaced by Glenn Youngkin, a veteran businessman with tons of economic experience.
Up to this point, nearly all of the recent polls have been within the margin of error. This could be a very tight race that could preview the momentum for each political party prior to the midterms.
It’s worth noting that Virginia has faded away from Republicans in recent elections, simply because the demographics have slowly been shifting in favor of the Democratic Party. Northern parts of Virginia are heavily-democratic and those regions have been growing, making it much harder for a Republican to win a statewide election. A similar situation is taking place in Georgia, although recent elections in Georgia have been much closer than Virginia.
If the Republicans win the governorship in Virginia, this will be an incredible statement going into a midterm election year. An inevitable warning sign would be provided to the Democrats as they brace for impact in the 2022 midterms. We’ll see if the momentum is truly with the Republicans, or if the Democrats can make a last minute play to prevent losing control of a state that has faded into their control in recent years.