It may be one of the most important political events of 2021 and it’s probably more likely to happen than you might think because millions of Californian citizens are placing their faith in the possibility of a recall election striking down the Governor of California.
Many political observers or analysts may immediately write off the possibility of a recall in the democratic powerhouse of California. The truth of the matter is that there is a very real possibility that Governor Newsom loses his position in office, especially if enough alternative candidates run with the intention of providing an alternative leader for the golden state.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that it has to be a Republican candidate, it can even be a Democratic candidate that is willing to stand up against Newsom. Democrats may also be forced to automatically provide a few Democratic alternatives to ensure that the Republicans don’t have a high chance of claiming the governorship.
According to betting sites and political markets, Newsom has about a 2-in-10 chance of successfully being recalled in 2021. For a state that voted in favor of Joe Biden by approximately thirty percentage points, it’s quite shocking that there may be enough bipartisan support to remove him from office.
Newsom has previously said that his plans to reopen California are not due to the unpopularity of stay-at-home orders and lockdowns. It appears that this may just be another false statement from the California governor because coronavirus cases haven’t changed all that much and he continues to reopen the state as his approval ratings drop. He also seemed to urgently desire to reopen the state as the recall petition became more prominent and successful.
It’s going to be one of the toughest questions to answer in 2021 but it’s going to be answered at some point by the voters. Are the democrats going to show up to defend their governor to prevent a republican from potentially taking over? If the answer is yes, then the entire recall petition will be a giant waste of time and effort. On the other side of the spectrum, republicans are going to be energized in California and let’s not forget that more than six million people voted republican in 2020 within the jurisdiction of California.
If democrats aren’t motivated to vote in the recall election, then Governor Newsom of California may be forced out of office by the force of the voters. There are many different ways for the recall election to play out but these types of special elections are so rare that making any form of projection towards them is useless. When you throw the factors of the coronavirus pandemic into the equation, it’s virtually impossible to even speculate on the matter.
