The election in Virginia next month could indicate a major shift in national momentum and political analysts are already seeing signs that Republicans could overperform due to Biden’s decreasing approval ratings in battleground states across the nation.
Several top democrats are planning to campaign with McAuliffe in the coming days and weeks, including former President Obama, according to a campaign representative. Recent polls have shown a fairly tight race between the two parties in Virginia and both have a significant chance of winning at this moment in time.
Political betting markets are an excellent way to evaluate the odds of each candidate winning the election. PredictIt betting markets are currently showing a minor edge to the democrats in Virginia, but these odds have been tightening for the last several weeks as new polls continue to get released.
According to the betting markets, the Democrats have a 70% chance of winning with McAuliffe while the Republicans have a 30% chance of winning with their candidate, Glenn Youngkin.
Virginia is a region that has shifted away from the Republicans rapidly over the last two decades. Demographics within the state are not currently favorable to Republicans, but low turnout could be a factor in the upcoming election in November.
Biden’s approval ratings have also plunged in Virginia and his disapproval rating outweighs his approval by a significant margin. This is not good news for the President or his political party’s allies going into the elections in 2022. With that being said, Virginia’s gubernatorial race could be extremely close and Virginia might indicate some major headwinds for the Democratic Party during the midterm elections if things don’t turn around quickly.
We’re about three weeks from election day and the polls in Virginia are generally pretty accurate, especially if you factor in history from recent election cycles. Unlike the recent California gubernatorial recall election, it’s much more likely that the polls in Virginia could be accurate and show a tightening race between the Republican Party and Democratic Party.
Youngkin and McAuliffe will have just over 20 days to spread their message and campaign all across Virginia to try and secure a term as the next Governor of Virginia.