It might not be worth a whole lot of thought in June of 2021, but the 2022 midterm elections are already receiving a ton of speculation from market traders on some of the most prominent political market platforms on the web.
PredictIt has an incredibly popular market that allows traders to analyze the probabilities of Democrats or Republicans holding control of the House of Representatives in 2022. As of now, Democrats obviously have all three chambers of government, but their majorities in the two congressional chambers are not significant enough to pass their partisan agenda.
This means that more gridlock will likely be in store for the next couple of years. If Republicans take control of the House of Representatives, then there’s an even smaller chance of anything significant getting passed through congress before 2024.
If you look at PredictIt’s political market on this topic, 68% of traders believe that Republicans will take the House of Representatives. A similar market exists for Senate control after 2022. That market shows possibilities for Republicans as well, with 50% of traders thinking that Republicans will win Senate control.
A lot of political aspects can change between now and November of 2022, but it certainly is interesting to keep an eye on political betting markets and see how they shift between the two major political parties that control Washington D.C. and the remainder of the country.