It’s extremely difficult to look four years into the future and try to make a projection on what the political world may look like in terms of candidates, nominees, and party affiliation. It’s also hard to understand the shift in demographics and how certain political issues may develop between now and then.
Even though the 2024 Presidential Election is a very long time from now, many Republicans are looking at someone like Governor Ron DeSantis to step up and lead the Republican Party into the future if former President Trump decides to not launch a reelection campaign in 2024.
DeSantis has a reelection campaign for the governorship of Florida in 2022 and has already nearly raised ten million dollars for that campaign. He’s a heavy-favorite to win reelection in Florida because he focused on keeping Florida as open as possible during the worst times of the COVID-19 pandemic. His popularity with locals is above 50% and continues to improve as pandemic continues to improve.
Could he be the most likely candidate besides former President Trump to retake the White House for Republicans in 2024? According to the high-volume political betting markets, DeSantis and Trump are co-favorites for becoming the Republican Party nominee in 2024. If Trump decides to run, it would be incredibly difficult for DeSantis to mount a primary challenge against him. On the other side of things, if Trump does not run for the nomination, it’s hard to imagine any other candidate really having a realistic chance when facing off against DeSantis.
Going forward, Republicans have to win the state of Florida to even have a chance at an electoral college victory. Florida continues to shift further right, even during the 2020 election where President Trump won by a significant margin against Joe Biden.
Many political observers believe that DeSantis against Biden in Florida could be an even bigger victory in 2024. There’s no guarantee that DeSantis is the Republican nominee though. There’s also no guarantee that Joe Biden runs for reelection at the conclusion of his first term.
Ron DeSantis is among a short list of likely candidates that could convert their campaigns into a legitimate nomination for the Republican Party. Some other names in the mix include Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, and Kristi Noem. As of today, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are significantly farther ahead than any other candidate in the speculative betting markets for the Republican nomination.
The midterm elections will have a significant impact on whether DeSantis has a legitimate shot at winning the White House for Republicans in 2024. Donald Trump will also have to ultimately decide to not run for reelection. He’s already called himself the ‘presumptive nominee’ but Trump is getting older and his health and age could play a factor in his final decision.
If Ron DeSantis wins reelection in 2022 and Trump decides to not run in the 2024 Republican Primary, it’s hard to imagine a better candidate than Ron DeSantis for the Republican Party. He’s popular and leads one of the most important states in the country in terms of the electoral demographics. He could easily find himself as the Republican nominee if certain dominoes fall in his favor in the coming years.