The United States army has completed its withdrawal from Niger after 11 years of military cooperation with the west African country.
This follows a major disagreement earlier in the year when the Nigerien government accused the US of a condescending attitude during negotiations.
The US withdrew military support after the junta in Niger seized power in July 2023. The junta then said the US was trying to force it to pick between Russia and the US. Although the US was given some time to leave Niger, the immediate suspension of military cooperation was announced after a meeting between Niger military leadership and US diplomats in March 2024.
Shortly after the ejection notice, the US military began shopping for another base in the region.
I have been researching insecurity and politics in the region for over a decade and previously analysed the impact of the US drone base in Niger. Prior to the opening of the base, I analysed why it was unlikely to reduce terrorism in the country or region.
I argue that despite the current fracture within the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) and animosity with western partners, especially the US, regional and international collaboration is needed to fight terrorism in west Africa.
In the search for a new US base in the region, Côte d’Ivoire and Benin are the two most probable options at this stage. However, both are likely to present logistical problems.
Chad, a former ally of the US, would have been the most suitable option, but the country also ejected US special forces in April 2024, a few weeks before the country’s presidential election.
As the security forecast for the region remains dim with terrorism on the increase, it is evident that countries in the region need help to fight terrorism.
With Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso refusing to rejoin Ecowas, other areas of security cooperation must be strengthened. The Multinational Joint Task Force and the Accra Initiative, which all the three countries are still associated with, must be strengthened. This will be in the interests of all the countries in the region.
The number of terrorist attacks and fatalities in the region has increased since 2019 despite the presence of foreign military partners.
Despite the military regimes of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger forming an alliance of Sahel states to fight terrorism and to promote economic development, recent attacks with mass fatalities indicate that terrorist groups might already be taking advantage of the lack of a coordinated counter-terrorism strategy in the region.
There’s also a risk of terrorism spreading to other coastal countries in west Africa. Recently, the UN special representative for the Sahel and west Africa, Leonardo Simão, highlighted the threats terrorism poses to the entire region.
Months before the US finally left Niger, the United States Africa Command had begun searching for new partners to establish a new base in the region.
Since January 2024 the commander, General Michael Langley, has visited several west African countries to strengthen bilateral relationships.
He visited Nigeria in January. In April it was Côte d’Ivoire, to “reinforce the longstanding partnership between the United States and the Ivoirian government”. He said the US Africa Command would provide more than US$65 million in 2024 towards counter-terrorism operations in the region.
Next was the Republic of Benin in May. Benin is being considered partly because of its membership of the Multi-National Joint Task Force, which was established to fight terrorism in the region. The task force worked closely with the US in the fight against Boko Haram and its affiliates.
Shortly after the US visits to Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Benin, leaders from northern Nigeria cautioned the government against allowing the US and France to relocate their Sahel bases to Nigeria.
They argued that the attempt by the US and its allies to fight terrorism in the Sahel had been “quite unimpressive, if not a complete failure”.
Citing data from the Pentagon, the leaders said (as have I) that terrorism had risen dramatically in the region since the US began operations.
The US eventually denied that it intended to establish a military base in Nigeria.
Although Côte d’Ivoire and Benin remain the two probable options, successful US operations from these countries are unlikely. This is for three main reasons.
First, both countries are too far from the epicentre of terrorism in the region. Most of the terrorist activities are around the tri-border area of Mali, Burkina Faso and Algeria, which are hundreds of kilometres away from Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. Flying reconnaissance drones from either country would create huge logistical challenges for the US.
Second, operational drones to cover the Sahel would need to fly over Mali and Niger, which are currently both unfriendly to the US. Niger is now working with Russia, which has provided it with air defence systems.
The recent incursion of Ukraine into the Sahel in support of Tuareg forces backed by terrorist groups created further suspicion of US partners in the region.
The US, being a staunch ally of Ukraine, has remained silent on the attack, which resulted in the deaths of dozens of Malian soldiers. Despite its differences with Mali, Ecowas has condemned “external interference” in the region.
The best available option for the US remains Chad. The US has had a working relationship with the country as part of the multinational joint task force and has previously deployed troops to Chad in limited numbers.
In September 2024 the US and Chad agreed on the return of a “limited number” of special forces to the country – just four months after they’d left. This might eventually lead to the return of the US to the region.
The US needs to review what went wrong with its previous operations in the region. This includes its mode of diplomacy, transparency in host countries and a genuine desire to help these countries fight terrorism.
In the meantime, there is a need to strengthen the Multinational Joint Task Force and implement the Accra Initiative. While the task force remains operational, the Accra Initiative has not been implemented fully. I believe these platforms offer the best opportunities for counter-terrorism in west Africa and the Sahel at the moment.
This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: Olayinka Ajala, Leeds Beckett University
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Olayinka Ajala does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
