Thanks to recent Labor Department stats that revealed an increase in hirings in June, many economists and financial experts are forecasting that the United States may be back to pre-pandemic levels sooner than initially thought. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly is the latest to voice these thoughts, as she recently declared that the U.S. is on its way to reaching this goal.
For many analysts, the latest government report was nothing but positive. According to this new data, employers added about 850,000 jobs in June alone. This report has helped many believe that the economy will continue to recover from the pandemic and grow. Now, many analysts (including Mary Daly) believe that the U.S. will be back at pre-pandemic levels of business activity by the end of next year.
In best-case scenarios, many thought that this would happen. However, the last few months have revealed data that hinted we wouldn’t return to pre-crisis levels until after 2022. This latest report has once again increased the chance that the country will be back to normal in a year. However, as will all the current pandemic-related data, it appears numbers and forecasts will change with each new month as analysts struggle to see where the country is heading.
However, there are a few labor problems that could still harm the economy in different ways. For one, the labor shortage that the entire nation is facing hasn’t yet been solved, nor has the number of people filing for jobless claims weekly fallen to where many economists would like it to be. In fact, while the hirings in June increased, the amount of workers not currently working hasn’t actually changed in the past few months.
This could be for a variety of reasons. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, many Americans have had to opportunity (both in a positive and negative way) to think about their careers. This has resulted in a lot of people retiring, as well as a lot of workers changing their careers or jobs. So, this latest increase of hirings in June may be a result of people changing their jobs, rather than many people returning to the workforce.
However, even with all of these struggles, the United States economy is still speeding ahead. The economy first surged when Americans began to get vaccinated, as many were able to spend money and partake in activities that they haven’t been able to do since the pandemic. Now, as many Americans are officially fully vaccinated, business regulations have gone away to better accommodate customers.
This has resulted in a huge increase in business activity — though the nationwide labor shortage has hampered many businesses. The massive global supply chain problems have also hindered businesses from returning to how they normally ran.
However, even with all of these issues, economists and government officials do seem to think that the economy will only continue to experience growth. Recent positive data has made some forecast that 2021 may see the biggest economic growth since the 1950s — tailoring the initial expectation that this year will see an economic growth not seen since the 1980s.
Regardless of all other data, most analysts have forecasted that Americans will continue to apply for and get new jobs, increasing the monthly payrolls in the process.